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16/09/2025 - Market BIAS
1 Hour Chart - No Trend
4 Hour Chart - Uptrend - Phase 2
Daily Chart - NoTrend
TODAY - WE ARE NEUTRAL
Last Weeks Summary
Performance
Week: +1.07 % (from 24,726.75 → 24,992.00)
Daily: Mon +0.27 %, Tue +0.26 %, Wed +0.46 %, Thu +0.37 %, Fri −0.47 %
Key Drivers
Policy & data: Weakness in official data release (due to government shutdown) increased market focus on Fed’s next messaging; sentiment leaned toward rate cuts later this year
Yields: 10-year Treasury hovered ~4.13 %, keeping pressure on long-duration tech
Tech sector: Mixed tape among mega-caps and semiconductors; weakness in names like Palantir, AMAT, TSLA weighed on sentiment
Risks / Headwinds
Rate volatility: Moves in long yields remain a key overhang
Data uncertainty: Shutdown-related data gaps make reading growth and inflation harder
Concentration risk: Market sensitivity to big tech stocks means single names can sway direction
Outlook (Near Term)
Catalysts to watch: FOMC Minutes, Treasury auctions, early earnings reports
Key technical levels: Upside resistance zone ~25,100–25,200; support around last week’s close (~24,990)
Base scenario: Modest upside bias if yields stabilize, but fragile — any hawkish tilt or surprise data could derail gains
Upcoming - U.S. High-Impact ("Red Folder") Events: Week of Sept 8–12, 2025
Week: October 5th – October 11, 2025 (ET)
Event Date Time (ET)
FOMC Meeting Minutes – Wednesday, Oct 8th – 1:00 pm
Unemployment Claims – Thursday, Oct 9th – Tentative
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – Friday, Oct 10th – 9:00 am
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations – Friday, Oct 10th – 9:00 am
Week: October 12 – October 18th 2025 (ET)
Core CPI m/m Wednesday, Oct 15th – 7:30 am
CPI m/m Wednesday, Oct 15th – 7:30 am
CPI y/y Wednesday, Oct 15th – 7:30 am
Core PPI m/m Thursday, Oct 16th – 7:30 am
Core Retail Sales m/m Thursday, Oct 16th – 7:30 am
PPI m/m Thursday, Oct 16th – 7:30 am
Retail Sales m/m Thursday, Oct 16th – 7:30 am
Unemployment Claims Thursday, Oct 16th -Tentative
Unemployment Claims Friday, Oct 17th – Tentative
Average Hourly Earnings m/m Friday, Oct 17th – Tentative
Non-Farm Employment Change Friday, Oct 17th – Tentative
Unemployment Rate Friday, Oct 17th – Tentative
Disclaimer: Trading Predictions
The trading predictions and market analyses provided on this blog are for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.
All views expressed are based on the author’s opinions, personal trading experience, and interpretation of market conditions. While every effort is made to ensure accuracy, there is no guarantee that any prediction or analysis will prove to be correct.
Trading financial markets involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. You should always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
The blog and its author(s) are not responsible for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information provided.